Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.638263 0.737925 0.844723 0.967305 1.103725 1.250491 1.419930
2025-03-16 0.477939 0.605671 0.752351 0.931836 1.144058 1.385481 1.679296
2025-03-23 0.385605 0.533339 0.714325 0.949029 1.241744 1.591045 2.035316
2025-03-30 0.287432 0.437194 0.633763 0.904438 1.260600 1.705998 2.296945
2025-04-06 0.220065 0.368914 0.578265 0.883848 1.306826 1.859138 2.620450
2025-04-13 0.165381 0.307506 0.522329 0.854922 1.338788 1.997384 2.938451
2025-04-20 0.131495 0.270421 0.495297 0.862893 1.422161 2.211706 3.375520
2025-04-27 0.101834 0.233269 0.461819 0.856598 1.484442 2.402789 3.797277
2025-05-04 0.081166 0.206915 0.441284 0.867653 1.573899 2.640460 4.303284
2025-05-11 0.063819 0.182079 0.418750 0.872152 1.653572 2.870337 4.815202
2025-05-18 0.046021 0.150163 0.376504 0.836056 1.663329 2.994709 5.179914
2025-05-25 0.032213 0.121913 0.334842 0.793931 1.657477 3.093377 5.511865
2025-06-01 0.023868 0.104677 0.313449 0.789404 1.721045 3.315905 6.063893
2025-06-08 0.016912 0.087637 0.288019 0.772548 1.760698 3.502908 6.573855
2025-06-15 0.013363 0.079872 0.283213 0.798601 1.884008 3.841704 7.352894
2025-06-22 0.008877 0.065000 0.255353 0.768796 1.895977 3.988770 7.825248
2025-06-29 0.006125 0.054877 0.237282 0.758071 1.944592 4.204353 8.426389
2025-07-06 0.004008 0.045294 0.217220 0.738438 1.972257 4.383669 8.975958
2025-07-13 0.002912 0.040269 0.210167 0.750492 2.068395 4.696066 9.773819
2025-07-20 0.001973 0.034666 0.198832 0.748951 2.134489 4.956028 10.492703
2025-07-27 0.001403 0.030966 0.193216 0.762302 2.235590 5.290065 11.361660
2025-08-03 0.000953 0.027239 0.185851 0.769199 2.322474 5.601656 12.204881
2025-08-10 0.000516 0.021708 0.167491 0.738838 2.317408 5.729274 12.715164